Funding Ukraine

The media is blaming the Republicans for Ukraine losing the war. There are lots of reasons to hate Republicans and maybe their refusal to fund Ukraine without a quid pro quo is one of them, but the fact of the matter is Ukraine has been losing the war for about a year now, and the Ukrainians know it.

Ukraine won 2022: they outmaneuvered Russia politically and embarrassed the Russians on the battlefield.

Ukraine lost 2023: first they were mauled in Bakhmut, and got mauled again in their failed counter-offensive. Aside from the Prigozhin flare-up, 2023 was all Russia. The Ukrainian military started asking for half a million more men, and the Ukrainian Parliament didn’t give it to them. If you were fighting for the life of your nation, why wouldn’t you raise an army to fight? Because you know you are going to lose anyway and you want to spare some lives. Only after six months did Parliament approve a partial mobilization which no one believes will turn the tide of the war.

Ukraine is losing 2024 and we are finally waking up to this reality. It has little to do with the funding in Congress, it has to do with Ukraine running out of men and NATO running out of spare ammunition.

You might argue that the Ukrainians are scoring hits on the Russian Black Sea fleet and oil refineries, but I suggest you read about Rafael Semmes, the Confederate Privateer who in the American Civil War wreaked havoc on United States shipping and became a hero in the newspapers of Richmond, London and Paris, but who is not remembered today because none of his efforts had any effect on the outcome of the war.

Could Ukraine still pull out a win if the Russian regime suddenly collapses? Sure: one theory of Russian politics is that Putin is beholden to the oligarchs who put him in power, and if the war drags on long enough then they will replace him with someone else. I would bet that American and NATO intelligence has contacts among Russian oligarchs on whom they base that theory. But there are other theories about Russian politics, and since Russia is in fact winning we will most likely never find out which theory was correct.

If you support Ukraine and are still intent on blaming Republicans, I will ask you to be fair and not blame all of them; you still have Lindsey Graham on your side. The ghost of John McCain is also on your side, demanding blood from his throne up there in War Pig Heaven.

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