1. The election will be contested.
Mail-in voting is going to be a disaster, so we are going to have a contested election. I think it is planned: the Democrats are not confident that Biden can win so they want to muddy the results and create as much chaos as possible.
Trump doesn’t mind the chaos, he likes it. Maybe he thinks it keeps his base activated or maybe he just likes the attention, but it also turns people off and gives the left material for their conspiracy theories.
If Trump wins, there will be a few months of street violence and a few years of weird conspiracy theories. If Biden wins hardcore Trump supporters will resort to their own conspiracy theories about how the election was stolen, creating a “stabbed-in-the-back” legend, which of course is dangerous.
2. The splintering will continue.
Street violence, whether or of the political kind or the opportunistic kind, is rising. Some cities may bounce back but Portland, Seattle, Minneapolis, New York and Chicago look like they are in for a decade of decline thanks to their feckless, idiot mayors.
Gun sales are through the roof. Can we expect defacto militias being formed in places where the police can’t act?
3. Race and gender critical theories are not going away.
These theories are social poison: paranoid, vindictive, totalitarian and insane. They are the defacto governing ideologies of education, corporate America, and the media. They are utterly opposed to the American liberal tradition – that often contradictory mix of Enlightenment, Christian and English elements – and the American liberal tradition seems incapable of resisting it.
So, what are you going to do if you are going to stay sane? I’ve recommended avoiding media, mistrusting slogans, and staying close to real people: friends, families, neighbors. But our world increasingly demands we participate in delusional thinking through moral panics and conspiracy theories. The crazies are making it harder and harder for sane people to ignore them.
Personally I wonder if I should start drawing lines for myself, lines I won’t cross. If my employer asks me to participate in Critical Race training or get a flu vaccine to keep my job, will I? Probably, I need a job, even though I think both are a participation in someone else’s delusion.
No sooner did I write this than I noticed how fear about the future was creeping in. Fear is not always an irrational emotion, but I think in this case it is. Bad things may happen, but most likely not to me.